Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 2 Surveys, Tie In 3 Others | As Race Tightens
Vice President Kamala Harris has a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in two new national polls out Sunday, but three other surveys are a dead heat—as surveys show a virtually tied contest for the White House marked by near-tossups in all seven swing states, keeping the race wildly unpredictable just days before the election.
Key Facts
Harris has a two-point lead, 49%-47%, in a Morning Consult survey of likely voters out Sunday with a margin of error of one point—a slight tightening of the race since Harris led by three points last week and four points in two prior Morning Consult polls.
The vice president has a similar three-point 49%-46% advantage in an ABC/Ipsos poll, compared to her 51%-47% lead last week and her 50%-48% edge in early October.
Meanwhile, NBC News and Emerson College polls out Sunday show the two candidates tied at 49%, and a Yahoo News/YouGov survey also produces a 47%-47% deadlock.
Harris is up 49%-48% in the latest HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters released Thursday—but some 10% of likely voters and 16% of all registered voters could still change their minds.
Harris also leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in an Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% unsure and roughly 3% backing other candidates (margin of error 3.6)—a slight narrowing from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.
Harris is up 51%-47%—with just 3% still undecided—in a very large likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Study, a survey backed by several universities and conducted by YouGov, which polled around 50,000 people from Oct. 1 to 25.
Several other polls show near-ties: The candidates were deadlocked in recent polls by The New York Times/Siena College, Emerson College and CNN/SSRS, while Harris leads by just one point in polls by Reuters/Ipsos and CBS/YouGov.
The widely followed Times poll represented a decline in support for Harris since the newspaper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump—and the paper called the results “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections even when they’ve lost the White House.
Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in a CNBC survey of registered voters released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5)—a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.
Harris erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her edge has decreased over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
What's Your Reaction?
